Will Blue Origin or SpaceX Lead in Moon Landings in 2025?

The race to the lunar surface in 2025 is heating up, and two major contenders are vying for the lead: Blue Origin and SpaceX. While both companies have made significant strides in space exploration, the current status of their respective programs reveals some stark contrasts.

The Current Status of Blue Origin's Lunar Ambitions

As of now, neither Blue Origin nor SpaceX has a proven method to reach the Moon. Blue Origin has ambitious plans but has yet to make a substantive step towards realizing them. The New Glenn rocket, their most advanced payload launcher, is still in development, and a crewed version has yet to be built.

Blue Origin has discussed the possibility of a New Armstrong rocket for lunar operations, but this remains more of a concept than a concrete plan. Without a New Glenn rocket to deliver the necessary hardware, let alone the New Armstrong, Blue Origin’s current focus is on the suborbital market.

The company's goals for a lunar lander, known as Blue Moon, are also facing hurdles. A crewed ascent stage would be required to get to the Moon, and this would need to be attached to a larger rocket capable of reaching lunar orbit. However, the New Glenn may not be sufficient for this task, and even if it were, the ascent stage might struggle to return from lunar orbit to the NASA Lunar Gateway.

SpaceX's Lunar Ambitions

On the other hand, SpaceX is moving forward with Starship, a system designed for both Earth orbit and interplanetary travel. The Starship/Super Heavy combination has demonstrated its capability to carry payloads beyond Mars, showcasing its potential for a lunar mission.

In 2021, SpaceX plans to make a significant leap with the Starship/Super Heavy rocket. Once this system is operational, SpaceX intends to conduct propellant transfer in orbit. By 2022, demonstrating successful refueling in space could pave the way for the first fully topped-up Starship to make an autonomous landing on the Moon.

SpaceX’s Starship has already shown its potential. In 2022, one of their rockets was used to carry an Israeli Moon probe, demonstrating Starship's capability to support lunar missions. This success further solidifies SpaceX's lead in lunar ambitions.

Comparing the Two Strategies

While Blue Origin's goals are ambitious, they face significant technical and financial challenges. The need to develop New Glenn, a New Armstrong, and a crewed version of Blue Moon presents a daunting task.

SpaceX, with its experience and existing infrastructure, stands a better chance of achieving lunar landings in the near future. Starship’s advanced design and previous successes indicate that SpaceX could potentially beat NASA and Blue Origin by a few years.

One possible scenario for SpaceX’s lunar base could involve establishing a modular settlement on the surface of the Moon. This base could serve as a hub for further exploration and scientific research, leveraging the autonomy and recoverability of Starship.

The Future of Lunar Exploration

The race to the Moon in 2025 is as competitive as ever. While Blue Origin has the vision for a crewed lunar mission, SpaceX’s clear and progressive roadmap makes them a more likely contender to lead in this ambitious endeavor. Only time will tell which company will achieve this historic milestone first.