The Willowy Future of High Plains Agriculture: When the Ogallala Aquifer’s Waters Run Dry

The Ogallala Aquifer, a vast underground water supply beneath the High Plains region of the United States, has been the lifeline for agricultural success in the region for decades. However, with water levels gradually declining, the question arises: What will happen to High Plains agriculture when the Ogallala Aquifer is fully depleted?

Uneven Drying: Regional Differences

It is important to note that the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer will not occur simultaneously across all regions. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), parts of Texas will experience water depletion much sooner than Nebraska. The following map from the USGS shows the water decline in the Ogallala Aquifer from pre-development to 2015. Areas in red have experienced the greatest decline, often exceeding 150 feet, while blues and greens indicate increases in water levels. A particularly alarming area in Nebraska shows a decline of more than 50 feet.

Specific locations like Lubbock, Texas, will face water shortages before others like Lexington, Nebraska. This uneven timeline will lead to complex and varied outcomes for different regions.

Historical Context: The California Water Wars

Historically, issues of water scarcity have led to significant conflicts. For instance, during the early 20th century, the diversion of the Owens River to the Los Angeles Basin by William Mulholland resulted in severe water shortages for the Owens Valley. This led to the collapse of the local economy, transforming Owens Lake into a dry bed and endangering sheep ranching.

Another incident is the dispute over Mono Lake in the 1940s, where excessive water diversion almost completely dried up the lake. This led to conflicts, court cases, and environmental degradation, resulting in the disruption of local economies and ecosystems.

Forecasting the Future: Potential Economic and Environmental Impacts

Based on current estimates, the Ogallala Aquifer could be depleted within as little as 50 years. When this happens, the High Plains region will face significant economic challenges. The region is known as the grain belt, supplying more than 90 million metric tons of grain annually. This not only sustains the US and its livestock industry but also serves as a crucial export for global food security. A failing grain belt would not only lead to widespread hunger in the United States but also exacerbate food shortages worldwide, triggering large-scale human migrations and political instability.

From an environmental perspective, the potential consequences are equally alarming. The Dust Bowl in the 1930s, one of the largest man-made environmental disasters in history, showed how a lack of water and inadequate farming practices can lead to catastrophic soil erosion. Without water, crops will cease to grow, leading to a resurgence of the Dust Bowl. Furthermore, the topsoil could completely erode before any native or invasive grasses have a chance to stabilize the area.

Possible Solutions: A Shifting Water Source

While diverting water from other sources like the Columbia or Mackenzie Rivers might be theoretically possible, political and environmental obstacles make such plans impractical. However, the Great Plains states could potentially work together to propose alternative solutions, such as diverting water from the Great Slave Lake or running a pipeline from Lake Superior. While these plans may not be feasible, the notion of such projects could be discussed.

Conclusion

The depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer represents a significant threat to the High Plains region’s agricultural future. The uneven timeline of water depletion across different regions will lead to complex socio-economic and ecological impacts. Governments, farmers, and international communities must collaborate to find sustainable solutions to ensure the longevity of this vital agricultural region.