The Threatening Apophis and the Future of Near-Earth Asteroids

The planet Earth has faced numerous potential threats throughout its history, one of the most notable being the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. Estimated to be between 10 and 15 kilometers wide, this colossal impactor created a massive 150-kilometer-wide crater, the second-largest on our planet. In this article, we explore the current threat from asteroid Apophis, its size compared to the scale of extinction-level events, and the role of astronomers and governments in addressing near-Earth asteroid threats.

Apophis: A Potentially Hazardous Asteroid

Exactly seven years from today—on April 13, 2029—Apophis, a potentially hazardous asteroid, will pass extremely close to Earth. Known as one of the largest asteroids of its kind, Apophis is estimated to be 340 meters (1,120 feet) in diameter. This will bring the asteroid within 31,000 kilometers (19,000 miles) of Earth’s surface, closer than most geostationary satellites.

Close Encounter in 2029

On that fateful day, Earth will experience a dramatic encounter with Apophis. According to NASA, the asteroid will skim past the Earth at a distance of only 0.023 AU ( astronomical units), which is approximately 23,000 miles or 37,000 kilometers. Despite the close encounter, NASA has announced that the Earth is safe during this passage and during Apophis’s return in 2036, with the likelihood of an impact in 2036 being less than one in a million.

Comparing Apophis to Chicxulub and Tunguska

While Apophis is undoubtedly a significant threat, it pales in comparison to the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs, Chicxulub. Estimated to be around 10 to 15 kilometers wide, Chicxulub’s impact created a vast 150-kilometer-wide crater. In contrast, even a Tunguska-sized meteor, which strikes the Earth roughly every 100 years, is still relatively small compared to Chicxulub but represents a potential city-destroying threat.

The Role of Astronomers and Governments

The detection and monitoring of near-Earth asteroids require a concerted effort from both astronomers and governments. However, the current approach appears to be less than ideal. Astronomers often ask for funding to use telescopes for asteroid hunting, which is a less effective method compared to using radar. Telescopes struggle to detect nearly black asteroids against the nearly black backdrop of space. Radar, on the other hand, would be more effective and relatively inexpensive.

Why Radar Is More Effective

Radar can provide better detection of asteroids, as it can penetrate the darkness of space and detect reflective surfaces on asteroids. Despite concerns about signal degradation over distance (r^-4 problem), radar detection remains the most reliable method for tracking and predicting the paths of near-Earth objects.

The Future of Asteroids

Despite the potential threats, the future of asteroids is not without hope. With advancements in technology and space exploration, it may be possible to mine and process asteroids. By doing so, humanity could potentially earn trillions of dollars and ensure the sustainability of resources in outer space. In 500 years, it is estimated that half the asteroids within the asteroid belt could be completely mined, and by 2000 years from now, there might be no asteroids left in the Kuiper belt.

Conclusion

While the threat of Apophis in 2029 is real, it also highlights the importance of continued efforts in asteroid detection and monitoring. By utilizing more effective methods like radar and addressing the funding and coordination of these efforts, we can better protect our planet and ensure the sustainable use of space resources for future generations.