The Catastrophe of Eruption: Exploring the Worst Volcanic Scenario

When contemplating potential global calamities, the possibility of a major volcanic eruption emerges as a critical and unsettling topic. With over 1,000 known active volcanoes across the planet, a mere 20 are classified as supervolcanoes based on their potential for highly explosive eruptions, typically rated at V8 on the volcanic explosivity index (VEI). This scale ranges from V0 (nonexplosive) to V8 (colossal).

Defining Supervolcano

A supervolcano is defined as an volcano with the potential for an eruption that would register as VEI 8 or higher. This categorization means such an eruption could have catastrophic effects, potentially leading to environmental and societal collapse on a massive scale.

The Emergence of Disaster

The thought experiment of what the worst volcano to erupt would be can be approached in several ways. Perhaps it is more fruitful to consider what will be the worst volcano to erupt. This perspective shifts the focus towards the inevitability of future eruptions and the timeline associated with them.

To delve into the specifics, researchers and scientists study eruption patterns and timelines. While it's impossible to predict precisely when a supervolcano such as Yellowstone or Krakatoa will next erupt, these events are indeed linked to "life-changing" outcomes. However, given the time scale of such events, they are far from immediate concerns.

The Present Threats

For immediate concerns, slightly less catastrophic but still very dangerous volcanic eruptions should be prioritized. For instance, Mount St. Helens, which has a history of frequent activity, erupts approximately every 99 years, with the last known eruption occurring in 1980. Another significant threat is Mount Rainier, located near Seattle/Tacoma, home to a population of approximately 4 million people, not including the iconic coffee company's headquarters. The last significant eruption of Mount Rainier was between 1824 and 1854, though reports of ongoing activity persist.

Understanding Large Igneous Provinces

A more dramatic scenario, yet one that should not overshadow immediate risks, is the possibility of another "Large Igneous Province" (LIP) eruption. LIPs, such as the Siberian Traps or Deccan Traps, involve massive eruptions that can release vast amounts of lava over tens of thousands to millions of years. These eruptions are linked to significant mass extinctions, most notably at the end of the Permian period and potentially even the Cretaceous period, which saw the demise of the dinosaurs. The intense release of volcanic gases and ash leads to environmental collapse, contributing to the extinction of numerous species.

Large Igneous Provinces are associated with mantle plumes, which are massive upwellings of hotter material resulting from mantle convection. When these upwellings occur under thicker continental crust, known as cratons, they can lead to extensive volcanic activity extending over vast areas.

Conclusion: Preparedness and Proximity

While the prospect of a supervolcano eruption looms as a theoretical and someday event, the immediate risk assessment should involve understanding the proximity to and the historical activity of larger, potentially more frequent, but less catastrophic yet still significant, volcanoes such as Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier.

Understanding these risks and preparing accordingly is crucial for maintaining public safety and environmental stability.