Will UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit Proposal Pose a Threat to the Northern Ireland Peace Process and Expose the Single Market?

Boris Johnson's latest Brexit proposals have garnered significant attention, especially in light of their potential impact on the Northern Ireland peace process and the UK's single market association with the EU.

The Inherent Flaws in Johnson's Proposal

The proposed plan by Boris Johnson encounters several critical flaws that make it unfeasible. One of the primary concerns is the idea that it contradicts his own stated goal of avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland. The proposal takes Northern Ireland out of the Customs Union, necessitating customs checks, controls, and tariffs on goods crossing the border. While GPS tracking for trucks might work for legitimate traders, it fails to protect the UK or EU borders. This falls well short of meeting the basic criteria required for an agreement on the UK/EU border in Ireland.

Implications for the Northern Ireland Peace Process

No matter the outcome, the Northern Ireland peace process is likely to fall apart the first moment someone is stopped at the border or arrested for an act that was legal before Brexit. This is a stark reminder of the delicate balance that has been carefully maintained in Northern Ireland for decades. The status quo of an open border remains crucial to maintaining peace and stability in the region.

The peace process in Northern Ireland has been hard-won and fragile. Any disruption to it, whether through reintroduction of border checks or other measures, could undo years of progress. It is imperative that the current border status is preserved to safeguard the peace in the region.

Uncertainties and Adaptation

Brexit will undoubtedly put further strains on the Northern Ireland community divide. However, it is not certain that these strains will lead to a breakdown in the peace process. Both communities have recognized that the violent conflict was a lose-lose situation, despite the presence of a few hotheads. Depending on the settlement between Britain and the EU, Northern Ireland may adapt, but this is not a certainty.

One of the major uncertainties post-Brexit is the land border between the UK and the EU in Ireland. Given the main reason for Brexit is to control immigration, the UK would need to introduce border controls where an open border currently exists. This may not sit well with republicans, who have traditionally opposed such measures.

Alternatively, border controls could be implemented between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The reaction of unionists to this scenario is unpredictable. Either way, the introduction of border controls into Ireland is a significant shift from the status quo and carries the risk of jeopardizing the peace process and economic stability.

In conclusion, Boris Johnson's proposed Brexit plan poses significant risks to the Northern Ireland peace process and could jeopardize the UK's single market exposure to the EU. The preservation of the current open border status remains critical to maintaining peace and avoiding further tensions in the region.